Aston Villa face Derby County at home this afternoon – and with both sides looking for a turning point after poor form – it could go either way.
Words by Regan Foy (@FindFoy)
Aston Villa host Frank Lampard’s Derby County at Villa Park this afternoon, after a much better display across forty-five minutes against Stoke.
In the history of head to heads between the two sides, Aston Villa are by far the better team, with 12 wins from 20 matches. Derby have won just six times against Aston Villa, and the two sides have drawn just twice.
Since the 11th of January 2019, both of the sides have struggled. Aston Villa have won just one game this calendar year, a 2-1 victory against Ipswich Town. The claret and blues have scored 10 goals, but they’ve conceded 18 – an issue that should improve in the last echelons of the season with the impending return of Axel Tuanzebe, and the recruitment of Tyrone Mings and Kortney Hause.
Derby haven’t had the best form, but they’ve still managed three wins in the time that Aston Villa have only managed one (granted, one was against Southampton in the cup). The Rams have scored only six goals in their latest Sky Bet Championship games, and have conceded six too. They’ll be hard to break down for the Villa, but they might struggle to score too.
According to the stats from the last ten games, cup games included for Derby, Aston Villa have a 50% chance of scoring, but a 90% chance of conceding this weekend. Derby are more likely to score, with a 60% chance, but have a 70% chance of conceding. Interestingly, Derby haven’t scored a goal for 189 minutes of football – which could spell a quiet game for Lovre Kalinic or Jed Steer.
Should Aston Villa win at home today, it will be the first time that they win both fixtures against Derby since the 2007-2008 season which saw Derby relegated from the Premier League. With both teams in shaky form, they are both looking to avoid breaking bad records. Aston Villa will be trying to not fail to score in consecutive home games for the first time since September 2017, and Derby will be looking to avoid losing four matches in a row since November 2011 when they were managed by Nigel Clough.
In the reverse fixture, a stellar second half display with goals from Tammy Abraham, John McGinn and Conor Hourihane saw Aston Villa romp to a strong victory.
For Aston Villa, Lovre Kalinic, Jack Grealish and Tom Carroll are all fit and available for selection, whilst Scott Carson has recovered from a thigh injury for Derby County. Orjan Nyland, Axel Tuanzebe, Henri Lansbury and Alan Hutton all remain injured. John McGinn is serving the second game of his two-match ban.
Derby will be without Andy King, Mason Mount, Craig Bryson, Macus Olsson, Curtis Davies, Craig Forsyth and Tom Lawrence.
The game is not on television, but is available on AVTV for international viewers.