A Premier League relegation odds tracker has been looking at which clubs are favourites for the drop throughout the season.

Words: Mark Jirobe | @VillaMarkPGH


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There has been a number of changes to life since COVID-19 swept across the planet. The landscape of football going forward is still a giant question mark – but there are hopes for a future where the Premier League season can be completed as quickly, efficiently and as safe as possible. There will be split opinions over how exactly that may get done – but for bookies across the world, not much has changed at all.

A Premier League Relegation Odds tracker has been following all types of betting odds for the Premier League season for the duration of the season.

Since July, the newly promoted teams from the Championship were given probability odds to take the drop immediately after being promoted – perhaps not as much a slight on the teams – but more an indicator of the gulf between the top two divisions of English football.

The tracker had Norwich City as a 53.5% (-115) probability of being relegated, whilst Aston Villa were given a 44.4% (+125) probability. It looks silly in hindsight, but Sheffield United looked to be the nailed on side for relegation at a 60% (-150) likelihood of taking the drop.

Compounding the unpredictability of a Premier League season, Bournemouth and Watford were not slated to be anywhere near the relegation zone at the end of the season. As per June 2019, the Cherries were only given a 20% (+400) probability of being relegated, whilst the Hornets were given a 15.4% (+550) probability of the drop.

Before the current season was halted in its tracks, betting on Sheffield United to be relegated had been either halted in most markets, or was available at insanely low odds. As of now, Norwich – who currently occupy the bottom spot with 21 points, have dive-bombed to 95.2% (-2000) probability, Bournemouth in 18th have plummeted to 58.8% (-143).

Watford, sitting one place above the relegation zone have had their odds shortened to 30.8% (+225) according to the tracker.

For Aston Villa, they find themselves on the wrong of the probability betting lines after a promising season was reduced to mediocrity. The Midlands giants are currently sat in 19th with 25 points from 28 games played. The seven games that Villa have won are a far cry away from what supporters and pundits initially expected.

As of March 8th, Aston Villa were a 63.6% certainty to drop back down into the Championship – with only Norwich holding a higher probability of relegation.

Although we aren’t sure how the powers-that-be are going to plan out a continuance on the current Premier League season – if it should resume, the squads and games to be played will remain the same. There has been little talk about remaining fixtures being switched to improve travel or accessibility easier, and due to the strength of the impending schedule ahead of Villa if the league resumes, it looks as if the bookies have very low confidence in the B6 side lifting themselves out of the league’s basement.

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